Menopause is predictable
You have a 100% chance that it will happen and doctors will tell you that the best guide for working out when is to ask your mother when it happened to her. However a new test developed by the University of Michigan can now reveal if you are within 5 years of the big M. Or does it?
The test measures levels of AMH, or anti-mullerian hormone, and inhibin-B. They decrease as you approach menopause. The university of Michigan found that levels became very low or virtually undetectable four-to-five years before your final period. So, the test should show when you have four-to-five years left to have a child.
This test is starting to be used “by demand” in the US. Not only that, it is believed that a DIY test will soon be available. Cost of test? Anything from $100 to $400. Some doctors predict the test will become standard. Others say its use is a concern especially as a tool for family planning.
So let’s look at how it might be used.
What is the scenario? You are 36 and a busy career woman facing the decision of motherhood versus some other personal goal and so you take a test and it tells you what? Your levels are fine this year. So what do you do? Give yourself a motherhood reprieve for another year. And start doing a test every year until you get a “positive”. Leaving off motherhood to the last 4-5 years of your reproductive life knowing that as each year passes the chances of actually falling pregnant are they themselves falling. Hedging your bets on a race that you are likely to lose.
How about this scenario? You are 36. You have had a series of boy friends all of whom were fun, some of whom you loved and none of whom you committed to. You want to have a family some day and you know that time is running out becaue your mother went thru menopause at 43. The current boy friend is “nice” but you know it’s not True Love. You have been taking the test every year. You do it again and you go positive. That’s it. You have 4 maybe 5 years max to push out that family. You decide it’s game over. So you do it. You make the commitment to Mr Maybe and you have that longed for baby. Little knowing that had you dumped him instead and taken an overseas holiday to get over it you would have met the man of your dreams on a broken down ferry to Ireland and made a completely different commitment and a completely different baby and led a completely different life.
How about this scenario? You ‘re 36. You never thought of marriage. You have a great career. Then you meet someone. You fall in love. You float on air. You never knew … You hardly know him but you’re talking marriage and babies. Things are going so fast. Your head tells your heart ”slow down, be more cautious”. You decide to make the decision with your head, you’re more familiar with that. It’s logical. You makes lists for and against. You gather more information. You take the test. It is positive. You have 4-5 years in which to get married and have a baby. No need to rush things too much. You continue to date. Nothing changes. Still man of your dreams. You get engaged. You plan a big wedding. I mean it’s only going to happen once. By this time you’re at the altar you’re over 37. You try for a baby. Nothing happens. Then at 38, you ‘re late. You’re all excited. But the home test is negative. You wait. Then you see your doctor. He does a test. He says you’re not pregnant. You ask then what could it be? You know menopause is still a few years away … Then he tells you something they did not explain before. Your 4-5 years started way way before 36. If you had taken the test at 33 it probably would have been positive also. Say what?
Read the fine print. Based on annual values from six time points prior to the FMP, AMH longitudinal profiles declined and were highly associated with a time point 5 yr prior to FMP. Annual values. Six times.
Bottom line, for this test to have any meaning, you need to ask your mother when she reached menopause and based on that age, start taking this test 11 ( 6 + 5) years prior to that age to collect the 6 annual values. Then only then, can you rely on that first positive reading that tells you “Lady, you only have 4-5 years left”.
As a family planing tool, this test is no better than listening to your mother and following your heart anyway.
I watched that clip. She says that so many women are concerned about menopause and that knowing when it will happen will in some way help lessen the concern as in “knowledge is power”.
I don’t see how knowing can help people who are concerned except to get them even more focussed and possibly more concerned.
If they could also predict death would people want to know? Would that knowledge be power too?
Sometimes knowledge is just knowledge. And sometimes it even weakens us.
I agree that knowing when menopause will occur might not be that useful. Menopause isn’t a disease, it’s just a part of life.